How breaking climate buffers, teleconnections, and feedbacks are synchronising into a self-amplifying domino effect that threatens to permanently push global temperatures past 1.5°C
Wow, it is really impressive how much we are learning every year regarding the very complex linkages within the global climate systems. Unfortunately, the level of selective ignorance among the politicians and business elites is in comparable inverse proportion to the advances made among the scientific community. Wilful ignorance will probably be the most damaging forcing agent on the climate change led demise of the human species, I guess the 1% think they can train AI to control the robots to prepare the Solent green necessary for survival of crypto account growth.
"A “cold blob” has developed in the North Atlantic over recent decades, standing out as the only region of the world’s oceans that has stubbornly refused to warm. At the same time" the European heatwave 18.. 28 June 2026 is the first element in the cascade as Stefan Rahmstorf posted:
"Much of Europe is sweating in an exceptional heat wave. But why has heat in Europe increased 4 times more than in other mid-latitude areas?
That has been linked to the Atlantic #coldblob in several studies. #AMOCSlide from my talk at London Climate Action Week #LCAW2026 today."
For over 25 years I have paid close attention to learning the core issues of the unfolding climate science and inaction that comes with it at COP etc by govts. No criticism of your science info here Tom, it is excellent compilation, and hopefully can inspire a younger generation into action. But allow me to play devil's advocate too. We've gone from several tens to thousands of climate science papers each month. Plus waiting for the next AR7 to add nothing useful again.
I'm cherry picking these items to point out that the scientists and even I knew all this scientifically if not each specific item case in the 1990s early 2000s. The climate is complex system with teleconnections that WILL lead to tipping points; IF nothing is done to curtail GHG emissions and stop ecosystem destruction by humanity through over consumption. Obviously nothing has been done of any great effect -- the road to ruin, to economic climate and civilization collapse continues non-stop.
- Tom, how does anything here either tell us something new, and has the power to change anything at all? for example quotes:
"-However, a groundbreaking study has revealed that these two phenomena are not just parallel symptoms of climate change—the monsoon shift is a direct result of the Atlantic cold blob.
-As we discover more about the planet’s inner workings, it is becoming clear that our shift from environmental normality is highly interconnected.
-Such cascading tipping behaviour operates via teleconnections that exist between many of the world’s major tipping elements.
-...there is a domino effect that can travel around the world, changing the status of other elements, both positively and negatively.
-Science is slowly revealing that the Earth is a interlinked system in which changes on one side of the planet can have an effect all the way on the other side.
-When one system is forced past its point of no return, it sends shockwaves through these interconnected networks, threatening a global domino effect.
and -The 2023 2024 2025 State of the Climate Reports issued a warning in the face of the unfolding catastrophe: ...... It was these cascading risks they had in mind when they wrote those words."
Honestly, none of this is new. None of this will make a difference to anyone in business government or the public. As they have ignored it for +25 years so far. So what's the point of any of it now? A last ditch cry for urgency? I am quite content to accept nothing is going to fix this. That the only rational action is instead to prepare for what comes after. Including how to save the human knowledge that some kind of positive future for a remnant humanity persists.
One of the last things survivors of the future will need is this kind of knowledge about "peer reviewed climate science" and NASA GISS Data Sets. This is surely the only realistic approach left now? I cannot see how you and Hansen et al can compete with the $Billions funding the likes of Zeke Hausfather and Co. selling mysticism and marketing as climate science.
Is documenting our collective demise enough? We knew all along and still did nothing!
It’s a fair point, I’m probably behind you on the despair curve so I still see the point of expanding knowledge as far as I can. It may have been known to the science community decades ago, but not the public so much and not the policy makers either. I think what is new is the pace of change and the fact that things that were not supposed to happen for decades are happening now. For example I’m typing this at 7:30am on the Welsh borders of the UK and it’s over 23ºC outside - that’s insane!
I hope you don't Tom. Keep going. This saved article popped up from early 2024, I made a couple of comments back then. Jackson said it all very well too. 2 years later here we are. Best wishes
Fun fact: global capital has to allow humanity to act with all we’ve got or they loose everything.
The game is changing now as global capital thought they could manage the risk, which they will not.
React or loose everything which changes the game fundamentally as models are wrong and the collapse of the biophysical Earth system will turn Earth into a hostile place and that fast if we will not react in some years.
Hence, we need to be pushing the next years as they will likely decide our fate on Earth.
The window is closing rapidly now.
Main Problem: we overheat the oceans which can’t be reversed by solar dimming…
Hi Tom I just published a short AI post on the arctic decline and pose the question on why did we not know this would happen? It is based around the notion that osmotic shock and ocean chemistry at the river mouths offer in most areas an intertidal transfer zone for nutrient retention which a cold area like the arctic do not have, hence stability is then transferred to the open ocean as its only default and hence the stability issue from overfishing. I think Jan's focus on global interconnectedness can also be seen in much smaller areas like these zones as they punch much above their weight when it comes to the stability of the whole. Thanks for the article.
Nice exposure of not so visible connections Tom! The climate is just like an organism with all the nested systems, subsystems, and messenger pathways between the ststems.
You can call it a butterfly climate effect as well. What happens in Vegas does not stay in Vegas as far as the climate goes.
Most people understand climate change through clickbait.
That means it’s usually a singular issue with little context that makes a snappy headline. e.g. Lake Powell on the Colorado running so low on power this year it may not be able to produce hydroelectric power. They are stealing water from upstream as a band aid and that’s your story, neat and simple. But if those articles Looked at the Colorado as a whole system it would be far worse news and the cascading failures discussed here apply. Obviously the complexity and potential cascading ecological collapses for the entire world should keep people awake at night.
Wow, it is really impressive how much we are learning every year regarding the very complex linkages within the global climate systems. Unfortunately, the level of selective ignorance among the politicians and business elites is in comparable inverse proportion to the advances made among the scientific community. Wilful ignorance will probably be the most damaging forcing agent on the climate change led demise of the human species, I guess the 1% think they can train AI to control the robots to prepare the Solent green necessary for survival of crypto account growth.
"A “cold blob” has developed in the North Atlantic over recent decades, standing out as the only region of the world’s oceans that has stubbornly refused to warm. At the same time" the European heatwave 18.. 28 June 2026 is the first element in the cascade as Stefan Rahmstorf posted:
"Much of Europe is sweating in an exceptional heat wave. But why has heat in Europe increased 4 times more than in other mid-latitude areas?
That has been linked to the Atlantic #coldblob in several studies. #AMOCSlide from my talk at London Climate Action Week #LCAW2026 today."
https://x.com/rahmstorf/status/2069032887630823467
For over 25 years I have paid close attention to learning the core issues of the unfolding climate science and inaction that comes with it at COP etc by govts. No criticism of your science info here Tom, it is excellent compilation, and hopefully can inspire a younger generation into action. But allow me to play devil's advocate too. We've gone from several tens to thousands of climate science papers each month. Plus waiting for the next AR7 to add nothing useful again.
I'm cherry picking these items to point out that the scientists and even I knew all this scientifically if not each specific item case in the 1990s early 2000s. The climate is complex system with teleconnections that WILL lead to tipping points; IF nothing is done to curtail GHG emissions and stop ecosystem destruction by humanity through over consumption. Obviously nothing has been done of any great effect -- the road to ruin, to economic climate and civilization collapse continues non-stop.
- Tom, how does anything here either tell us something new, and has the power to change anything at all? for example quotes:
"-However, a groundbreaking study has revealed that these two phenomena are not just parallel symptoms of climate change—the monsoon shift is a direct result of the Atlantic cold blob.
-As we discover more about the planet’s inner workings, it is becoming clear that our shift from environmental normality is highly interconnected.
-Such cascading tipping behaviour operates via teleconnections that exist between many of the world’s major tipping elements.
-...there is a domino effect that can travel around the world, changing the status of other elements, both positively and negatively.
-Science is slowly revealing that the Earth is a interlinked system in which changes on one side of the planet can have an effect all the way on the other side.
-When one system is forced past its point of no return, it sends shockwaves through these interconnected networks, threatening a global domino effect.
and -The 2023 2024 2025 State of the Climate Reports issued a warning in the face of the unfolding catastrophe: ...... It was these cascading risks they had in mind when they wrote those words."
Honestly, none of this is new. None of this will make a difference to anyone in business government or the public. As they have ignored it for +25 years so far. So what's the point of any of it now? A last ditch cry for urgency? I am quite content to accept nothing is going to fix this. That the only rational action is instead to prepare for what comes after. Including how to save the human knowledge that some kind of positive future for a remnant humanity persists.
One of the last things survivors of the future will need is this kind of knowledge about "peer reviewed climate science" and NASA GISS Data Sets. This is surely the only realistic approach left now? I cannot see how you and Hansen et al can compete with the $Billions funding the likes of Zeke Hausfather and Co. selling mysticism and marketing as climate science.
Is documenting our collective demise enough? We knew all along and still did nothing!
It’s a fair point, I’m probably behind you on the despair curve so I still see the point of expanding knowledge as far as I can. It may have been known to the science community decades ago, but not the public so much and not the policy makers either. I think what is new is the pace of change and the fact that things that were not supposed to happen for decades are happening now. For example I’m typing this at 7:30am on the Welsh borders of the UK and it’s over 23ºC outside - that’s insane!
I’m just not ready to curl up into a ball yet.
I hope you don't Tom. Keep going. This saved article popped up from early 2024, I made a couple of comments back then. Jackson said it all very well too. 2 years later here we are. Best wishes
Fun fact: global capital has to allow humanity to act with all we’ve got or they loose everything.
The game is changing now as global capital thought they could manage the risk, which they will not.
React or loose everything which changes the game fundamentally as models are wrong and the collapse of the biophysical Earth system will turn Earth into a hostile place and that fast if we will not react in some years.
Hence, we need to be pushing the next years as they will likely decide our fate on Earth.
The window is closing rapidly now.
Main Problem: we overheat the oceans which can’t be reversed by solar dimming…
Hi Tom I just published a short AI post on the arctic decline and pose the question on why did we not know this would happen? It is based around the notion that osmotic shock and ocean chemistry at the river mouths offer in most areas an intertidal transfer zone for nutrient retention which a cold area like the arctic do not have, hence stability is then transferred to the open ocean as its only default and hence the stability issue from overfishing. I think Jan's focus on global interconnectedness can also be seen in much smaller areas like these zones as they punch much above their weight when it comes to the stability of the whole. Thanks for the article.
Nice exposure of not so visible connections Tom! The climate is just like an organism with all the nested systems, subsystems, and messenger pathways between the ststems.
You can call it a butterfly climate effect as well. What happens in Vegas does not stay in Vegas as far as the climate goes.
Most people understand climate change through clickbait.
That means it’s usually a singular issue with little context that makes a snappy headline. e.g. Lake Powell on the Colorado running so low on power this year it may not be able to produce hydroelectric power. They are stealing water from upstream as a band aid and that’s your story, neat and simple. But if those articles Looked at the Colorado as a whole system it would be far worse news and the cascading failures discussed here apply. Obviously the complexity and potential cascading ecological collapses for the entire world should keep people awake at night.
...And the <1% are still trying to save Capitalism.
https://peterwebster.substack.com/p/the-1-may-have-a-plan
The <1% May Have a Plan - But it is not good news
"That which does not confront the system becomes its instrument." —Joel Kovel
As I contemplate all the horrific events of the past quarter-century or so, ...